Competition Rules

  • The maximum number of model submissions for the Forecasting Prize is three.

  • The maximum number of model submissions for the Field Implementation Grant is one.

  • The competition will allow use of publicly available external datasets, including, but not limited to, the Recommended Supplementary Data Sources listed below. Models using external datasets that are not publicly available will not be reviewed.

  • Competitors must create their model(s) as Jupyter Notebooks and upload them to the online entry platform (file extension .ipynb). See Annex II of the Competition Call for additional guidance on Jupyter Notebooks.

  • All EOIs must be submitted in English.

  • EOIs must be submitted via the online entry platform linked from this website. EOIs submitted via regular mail, facsimile, or email will not be accepted.

  • Complete EOIs must be submitted by the deadline at 11:00 a.m. Eastern USA Time on September 8, 2020 using the online entry platform. No additions or modifications to the expressions of interest will be accepted after the submission deadline.

  • Questions about the competition may be submitted via email to forecastingprize@usaid.gov by 11:00 a.m. Eastern USA Time on August 4, 2020. Answers will be published on this Frequently Asked Questions page of this website after the webinar on August 12, 2020 to ensure transparent communication. USAID bears no responsibility for data errors resulting from transmission or conversion processes associated with electronic submissions.

  • If no qualifying EOI is verified during the assessment stage, the competition may reopen, at the sole discretion of USAID and partners.

  • USAID will not be responsible for any costs associated with the development of EOIs or the forecasting model.

  • Information collected for demographic, research, learning, and outward-facing purposes will be labeled as such and will have no bearing on the evaluation of the entry.

Dataset Features

The goal of the Intelligent Forecasting Competition is to predict consumption (stock_distributed in the Primary Data Dictionary) for 11 contraceptives across 156 health service delivery sites in the public sector health system in Côte d’Ivoire. The predictions should be made monthly for three months: October 2019, November 2019, and December 2019, using the dataset provided. The data field that grantees will be predicting is stock_distributed.

Competitors will have access to 45 months, January 2016 through September 2019, of data. The featured dataset is an extract from the electronic logistics management information system (eLMIS) used in Côte d’Ivoire to manage contraceptives and other health products across the country’s public health system.

You may download the data for the competition only after you have registered or logged into the entry platform. Both the primary dataset and the secondary dataset are linked in the third section of the entry form.


Primary Data

contraceptive_logistics_data.csv

yearThe year of the observation
monthThe month of the observation
regionThe higher level geographical area within Cote d’Ivoire
districtThe lower level geographical area within Cote d’Ivoire
site_codeThe actual health service delivery site
product_codeThe unique identifier for each commodity
stock_initialStock in hand of previous period. This is quantified in dispensing units.
stock_receivedTotal quantity received in last period. This is quantified in dispensing units.
stock_distributed*Quantity dispensed/consumed in last reporting period. This is quantified in dispensing units.

Note: This is the target variable.
stock_adjustment
All kinds of losses/ adjustments made at the facility
stock_end
Current physical count of stock on hand. This is quantified in dispensing units.
average_monthly_consumptionAverage monthly consumption, for the last three months. This is quantified in dispensing units.

Note: Average monthly consumption in the system actually provides an average of the most recently available Normalized Consumption values. Normalized Consumption is the stock_distributed value adjusted to reflect any stock_stockout_days. Because months are approximated to have 30 days, one which had 15 stockout days would yield a Normalized Consumption of exactly twice its Monthly Consumption.
stock_stockout_daysTotal number of days facility was out of stock.
stock_orderedThe requested quantity. This is quantified in dispensing units.

* stock_distributed is the target variable.


Data quality in datasets such as these is a significant issue, as described in the Background section of the Competition Call (page 4). For example, not all sites report all data each month. In addition, there are cases in the contraceptive_logistics_data.csv dataset where the Côte d’Ivoire eLMIS system records a '0' value that may in fact represent a "non reported" value or a value entered by a user for convenience. In such an instance, these ‘0’ values do not reflect actual observed values.

These ‘invalid 0 values’ may be identified, for example, when:

A) All fields (possibly with the exception of stock_ordered) are recorded as '0' for a given contraceptive product, month and service delivery site; or

B) Stock_distributed for a contraceptive product at a service delivery site is reported in a given month as '0', even though stock was available (stock_initial was above 0) and stock_distributed is historically well above 0.

These apparently invalid '0' values have not been cleaned from the primary dataset provided. However, the values that appear to reflect invalid ‘0’ values will be removed from the test dataset, and these fields will not be scored in the model evaluation.

Primary Data Format

For example, a single row in the primary dataset has these features: 

year2019
month1
regionINDENIE-DJUABLIN
districtABENGOUROU
site_codeC4001
product_codeAS27138
stock_initial75
stock_received0
stock_distributed21
stock_adjustment-54
stock_end0
average_monthly_consumption
18
stock_stockout_days0
stock_ordered100

Secondary Data

service_delivery_site_data.csv


site_code
The unique code of the actual health service delivery site
site_type
The kind of health delivery location including hospital, health center, and university hospital/national institute
site_region
The higher level geographical area within Côte d’Ivoire
site_district
The lower level geographical area within Côte d’Ivoire
site_latitude
The site's latitudinal coordinates
site_longitude
The site's longitudinal coordinates

product.csv

product_code
The unique product code
product_type
The contraceptive category for each product
product_name
The product name, dose, and presentation

contraceptive_case_data_(annual, monthly).csv

implant_women_oldNumber of women receiving implants during the month, who used contraception previously
implant_women_newNumber of women receiving implants during the month, who did not use contraception previously
injection2_women_oldNumber of women receiving injection (2 months) during the month, who used contraception previously
injection2_women_newNumber of women receiving injection (2 months) during the month, who did not use contraception previously
injection3_women_oldNumber of women receiving injection (3 months) during the month, who used contraception previously
injection3_women_newNumber of women receiving injection (3 months) during the month, who did not use contraception previously
pill_women_oldNumber of women receiving oral contraceptives during the month, who used contraception previously
pill_women_newNumber of women receiving oral contraceptives during the month, who did not use contraception previously
iud_women_oldNumber of women receiving IUDs during the month, who used contraception previously
iud_women_newNumber of women receiving IUDs during the month, who did not use contraception previously
iud_number_dispensedNumber of IUDs given to women during that month
implant_number_dispensedNumber of implants given to women during that month
injection2_number_dispensedNumber of injection (2 months) given to women during that month
injection3_number_dispensedNumber of injection (3 months) given to women during that month
pill_number_dispensedNumber of oral contraceptives (one cycle) given to women during that month
iud_number_receivedNumber of IUDs received in that month
implant_number_receivedNumber of implants received in that month
injection2_number_receivedNumber of injection (2 months) received in that month
injection3_number_receivedNumber of injection (3 months) received in that month
pill_number_receivedNumber of oral contraceptive (one cycle) received in that month
iud_stock_endThe amount of IUD stock available at the end of that month
implant_stock_endThe amount of implant stock available at the end of that month
injection2_stock_endThe amount of injection (2 months) stock available at the end of that month
injection3_stock_endThe amount of injection (3 months) stock available at the end of that month
pill_stock_endThe amount of pill stock available at the end of that month

Recommended Secondary Data Sources


Competitions for Development

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